ManaCurve
Shared Deck
Mirkwood Forest
Commander:
Cards
100
Identity
BGU
Selected target
2
Updated (UTC)
Oct 5, 2026
6.4
Power Estimate
A heuristic signal from the current list, not a measured win rate.
B3 from available evidence; assessment incomplete
These estimates support a table conversation; they do not prove play strength. A range shows model disagreement, not a confidence interval.
Card structure: unavailable
59/62 nonland copies with evidence
Demand and mana efficiency: B3 · 5.8/10
62/62 nonland copies with evidence
100 cards checked, including 1 commander copies · 61 curated combo packages checked · checked rules minimum B1
Assessment receipts
list-evidence-2026-10-10-v4
Input 28022a166e3235fc96747293ff768dda0a6d790819ab3e7a49e5195c592d085a
texture-fixed-b2-faces-v2: Oracle card text and mana values; 0 card copies with unknown face provenance; 3 card copies with face availability not modeled; 61 curated combo packages checked
demand-impact-v1: Catalog USD prices and community inclusion ranks; Mana efficiency
Power Snapshot
B3 from available evidence; assessment incomplete • 0 game changers detected
Efficiency
7.0
Impact
524
Score
531
Tipping point 4 • playability 72%
Estimated deck value $72.10
Generator Trust
Deck Intelligence
Strategy Fit
43/100
Ramp 50 · Draw 19 · Interaction 13
Foundation
69/100
thin base · T3 lands 83%
Win Plan
69%
Token overrun · ready
Plan Coherence
99/100
graveyard · clear
Opening Mix
69%
2–4 lands + a cheap card · mana unverified
Win Plan evidence
Token overrun: 9 enablers · 1 payoffs · 15 support
This measures recognized pieces in the list, not a chance of winning or proof that you can execute the plan now.
Plan Coherence evidence
Method: weighted theme and role scores · graveyard
Weighted score inputs: Synergy 100 · Draw 100 · Interaction 89 · Win pieces 100 · Combo 100 (each /100)
Off-theme role cards: 19.7% of nonland copies · Construct-adjusted share: 11.5% of nonland copies (not used by the weighted method)
- Stabilized plan score: synergy already carries the role-soup penalty, so the primary read avoids the legacy double-penalty.
Foundation watchlist
Base vs commander
Commander tuning should preserve base-function floors before adding more theme density.
Value engines outnumber concrete closers; the deck may need clearer ways to end games.
Opening composition v2 · exact 7-card draws from 99 cards · 38 playable land faces (0 draft-only sources excluded) · 22 spells at mana value 0–2 · 9 ramp-tagged and 14 draw-tagged cards at mana value 0–3. Spell costs recorded for 61/61; missing mana values 0 (assumed 3), types 0, land text 0, nonland text 0. Land policy playable-land-faces-v1; front lands and verified modal land choices count, conditional transform backs do not. Multi-face cards 3 retain combined metadata for other estimates; invalid quantity rows excluded 0. Mana colors, tapped lands, activation costs, spending restrictions, draw conditions, multi-face availability and mulligans are not simulated.
Deck Strategy
This deck primarily plays as a tribal strategy and rewards disciplined sequencing.
In the early game, set up mana and hand quality before committing key threats. Midgame plans should build board presence through synergistic engines and incremental pressure. Your late-game priority is to leverage your strongest threats to convert a stable board into a finish.
Strategy Graph
Tribal: Counters Support Candidate into Counter Support Candidate.
unfocused - Some sacrifice support is not fully verified from the available card text, so its strength and the deck's focus remain uncertain.
Counter support is unverified
11 matched card copies × 0.1 + 0 archetype bonus, capped at 1 = 1.00 candidate score. This is a heuristic score, not a win probability.
Core eligibility: four-copy threshold met; commander heuristic not matched; archetype not matched. The counter candidate is the selected core, with a fixed 0.76 ranking score.
Matches can include placement, spending, opponent-directed effects and resource counters. Own growth, compatible recipients, repeatability and a finishing route need separate evidence.
counter-support-v1
Mill/Discard Commander
Thranduil, the Elvenking pressures hands or libraries and wants repeat mill, discard, wheel, or draw-punisher support.
Counters Support Candidate
Counter-related text suggests a possible role, but own growth, compatible recipients, repeatability and a finishing route are unverified. Matches can include spending counters, opponent-directed effects and resource counters.
Death/Drain Payoffs
Life-drain and death-trigger payoffs convert engine loops into table pressure.
Counter Support Candidate
Counter-text matches are unverified support hints, not proof of own growth or a finishing route. Check the counter kinds, recipients, costs and payoff.
Plan A: Counter Support Candidate
Counter-related support is unverified. Check counter kinds, recipients, payable costs and a useful payoff before treating this candidate as a growth or finishing route.
Plan B: Library/Hand Pressure
This pivot can attack cards in hand or library until opponents run out of resources or lose to draw/mill pressure.
Fallback: Counter Support Check
A counter-based fallback remains unverified. Check whether the available cards place, spend or move the relevant counters and establish a useful payoff.
Establish Resources
Start with the shown resource cards. Check their costs, conditions and fit with the engine before relying on them.
Check the Candidate
Counter-related text suggests a possible role, but own growth, compatible recipients, repeatability and a finishing route are unverified. Matches can include spending counters, opponent-directed effects and resource counters.
Verify a Payoff
Verify a useful payoff and compatible counter types and recipients. Counter-text matches alone do not establish one.
Verify a Finish
A finishing route remains unverified. Counter-related text alone does not establish how this list closes the game.
Typal Label Needs Type Density
The archetype says typal, but type-specific lords, token makers, or payoff cards are too sparse.
Token Payoffs
The deck can make bodies, but it needs anthem, draw, sacrifice, or drain payoffs that turn a wide board into a win.
Typal Density
Typal decks need enough type-specific lords, token makers, or payoff cards to be more than a normal creature deck.
Recommendations
Strategy Readiness (Bracket 3)
43%Pace target average MV: 3.05
WARN
B3 from available evidence; assessment incomplete
Validation passed · Rules check for the selected target
Cards checked 100 · Game changers 0
· Deck texture looks closer to bracket 2 than bracket 1 based on current efficiency, interaction, and combo signals.